TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.6b

24H VOL:

$113,284,831

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,858,735,640

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,620,345,032

79,029

Markets across

1,359

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

138

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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Taipei Mayor Election Winner
kalshi
polymarket

Who will win the Taipei Mayor election?

Total volume:
$2,446,888
Volume 24h:
$193,922
61%
Liquidity:
$401,298
5%
Open interest:
$313,377
2%

Chiang Wan-an

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 26, 2027

Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?

65%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 65¢ buys you 154 shares | Odds: 65% Total Payout: $154 | Net Profit: $54 Multiplier: 1.54x | ROI: 54% APY not meaningful 32 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Chiang Wan-an

Trade
65%
1%
Yes 65¢No 36¢
1¢
$108,396
$907,848
3%
N/A
N/A
1mo 2d
active
kalshi

Chiang Wan-an

Trade
64%
Yes 64¢No 37¢
1¢
N/A
$134,899
3%
N/A
$87,308
4mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
64.4%
Yes 64.5¢No 36.5¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
kalshi

Shen Bo-yang

Trade
37%
Yes 38¢No 63¢
1¢
N/A
$311,725
2%
N/A
$223,508
4mo 2d
active
polymarket

Puma Shen

Trade
36%
1%
Yes 36.1¢No 64.9¢
1¢
$149,493
$953,814
2%
N/A
N/A
1mo 2d
active
kalshi

Hsiao Wen-kan

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,110
0%
N/A
$1,110
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

Tang Hsin-min

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$175
0%
N/A
$175
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

Lin Chih-cheng

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$175
0%
N/A
$175
4mo 2d
active
kalshi

Kuo Hsi

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$1,101
0%
N/A
$1,101
4mo 2d
active
polymarket

Kuo Hsi

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$143,409
$136,041
0%
N/A
N/A
1mo 2d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
0.1%
Yes 0.6¢No 100¢
Avg: 1¢Max: 1¢
Total markets: 9

Description

This group forecasts the winner of the 2026 Taipei mayoral election. The election is scheduled for November 28, 2026, and markets will resolve based on the candidate officially declared the winner by the Taiwanese government's Central Election Commission.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Polymarket includes an 'Other' candidate option and a broader candidate list, while Kalshi focuses on a specific set of candidates. Polymarket also has a resolution deadline.Hero tip: Consider the possibility of a dark horse candidate on Polymarket, and the potential for a delayed resolution if the election outcome is unclear by their deadline.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if any listed candidate (A-Z) wins, or if 'another candidate' wins. Resolves to 'Other' if no candidate is elected by June 30, 2027. Source: Taiwanese Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if any of the specifically listed candidates (Chiang Wan-an, Shen Bo-yang, Kuo Hsi, Hsiao Wen-kan, Tang Hsin-min, Lin Chih-cheng) wins the election.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

Taiwanese local elections are scheduled to be held on November 28, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next Mayor of Taipei as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known, or no candidate has been elected, by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the results of the elections as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Taiwanese government, specifically the Central Election Commission (https://db.cec.gov.tw/).

Kalshi

If Chiang Wan-an wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Shen Bo-yang wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kuo Hsi wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hsiao Wen-kan wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tang Hsin-min wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lin Chih-cheng wins the 2026 Taipei mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.