TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$116,649,581
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,859,322,643
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,625,723,678
80,271
Markets across
1,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Greg Abbott (R)
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 20, 2027
Latest in Politics
Time left: 07d:15h:04m
Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
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Description
This event group concerns the outcome of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. Markets aim to predict which party, or specific candidate, will win the election based on official results and media reporting.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket rely on the same ultimate resolution criteria: the inauguration of a winning candidate determined by major news sources or official certification.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC News (with fallback to official certification)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves to 'Yes' if a Democratic candidate is inaugurated as Governor of Texas.
- The market resolves to 'Yes' if a Republican candidate is inaugurated as Governor of Texas.
- Resolution depends on the official inauguration of the winning candidate.
- Independent candidates are not considered part of the Democratic or Republican options.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Candidate Replacement: If a nominated candidate is replaced before election day, the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of their respective party.
- Disputed Election: In the event of a contested election and delayed certification, resolution will await the final, legally certified results.
- Source Disagreement: If the three primary sources (AP, Fox News, NBC) do not agree on the winner, the official certification will be used for resolution.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the party affiliation of the individual inaugurated as Texas Governor following the 2026 election. If a Democrat takes office, the market settles affirmatively under Rule 1. Conversely, a Republican inauguration triggers a resolution under Rule 2. No other conditions or secondary considerations affect the outcome—only the party of the eventual governor determines whether the market resolves to Yes.