TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.6b

24H VOL:

$113,284,831

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,858,735,640

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,620,345,032

79,029

Markets across

1,359

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

138

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)
⌛Ending SoonTrendingBreaking
kalshi

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (10/19 - 10/25)

Oct 16, 2026, 12:00 PM EST - Oct 27, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$325,624
Volume 24h:
$75,671N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$119,286
3%

Above 15

 - Kalshi

Above 15 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 27, 2026

Time left: 04h:17m:49s

Will there be more than 25 transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from Oct 19, 2026 to Oct 25, 2026?

38%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 44¢ buys you 227 shares | Odds: 38% Total Payout: $227 | Net Profit: $127 Multiplier: 2.27x | ROI: 127% | APY: N/A
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 15

Trade
99%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$67,211
16%
N/A
$18,905
4h 17m
active
kalshi

Above 20

Trade
87%
Yes 87¢No 14¢
1¢
N/A
$56,598
7%
N/A
$21,323
4h 17m
active
kalshi

Above 23

Trade
77%
Yes 77¢No 24¢
1¢
N/A
$6,342
24%
N/A
$2,900
4h 17m
active
kalshi

Above 25

Breaking
Trade
38%
Yes 44¢No 62¢
6¢
N/A
$15,716
4%
N/A
$5,746
4h 17m
active
kalshi

Above 27

Trade
20%
3%
Yes 20¢No 83¢
3¢
N/A
$12,667
14%
N/A
$5,595
4h 17m
active
kalshi

Above 30

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 96¢
3¢
N/A
$28,818
0%
N/A
$8,916
4h 17m
active
kalshi

Above 40

Trending
Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$56,903
67%
N/A
$19,331
4h 17m
active
kalshi

Above 50

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$42,631
3%
N/A
$26,609
4h 17m
active
kalshi

Above 35

Trending
Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$38,738
20%
N/A
$9,960
4h 17m
active
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz over a one-week period, reflecting global trade dynamics and regional geopolitical stability. The resolution depends on whether the total number of vessel transit calls exceeds specific thresholds during the specified dates.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple thresholds for vessel transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz from October 19 to October 25, 2026, as reported by the IMF PortWatch. Each market corresponds to a different threshold (e.g., above 15, above 20, above 23, etc.), and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the total number of daily transit calls summed over the week exceeds the respective threshold. All markets share the same calculation method: the total is derived by summing daily counts across the seven-day period. Resolution for all markets occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the end of the period, ensuring that complete and verified data is available before any outcome is determined.