TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.1b

24H VOL:

$108,040,032

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,819,523,799

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,638,571,346

66,513

Markets across

1,349

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

139

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

BETA
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All
Politics
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
polymarket

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

Sep 17, 2026, 11:54 AM EST - Oct 31, 2026, 7:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$26,773,718
Volume 24h:
$12,264,472
898%
Liquidity:
$517,298
53%
Open interest:
$1,961,300N/A

October 24

 - Polymarket

October 24 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 31, 2026

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?

100%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 99.7¢ buys you 100 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $100 | Net Profit: $0 Multiplier: 1.00x | ROI: 0.3% | APY: N/A
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

October 24

Trade
100%
Yes 99.7¢No 0.6¢
0.3¢
$47,330
$1,727,073
10%
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
active
polymarket

October 28

94%
3%
Yes 94¢No 7¢
1¢
$77,657
$1,105,296
37%
N/A
N/A
2d 21h 3m
active
polymarket

October 31

85%
1%
Yes 85¢No 16¢
1¢
$101,281
$6,765,031
12%
N/A
N/A
5d 17h 3m
active
polymarket

November 8

65%
4%
Yes 66¢No 36¢
2¢
$52,581
$165,957
17%
N/A
N/A
1w 6d 22h
active
polymarket

November 15

50%
1%
Yes 50¢No 51¢
1¢
$57,846
$531,743
8%
N/A
N/A
2w 6d 22h
active
polymarket

November 22

41%
1%
Yes 41¢No 60¢
1¢
$51,672
$99,108
23%
N/A
N/A
3w 6d 22h
active
polymarket

November 30

36%
1%
Yes 37¢No 65¢
2¢
$67,440
$904,670
2%
N/A
N/A
1mo 5d
active
polymarket

December 31

29%
2%
Yes 30¢No 72¢
2¢
$61,491
$772,303
4%
N/A
N/A
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

October 22

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,862,530
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

September 30

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,452,453
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 15

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,116,266
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 12

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$1,988,650
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 17

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$902,788
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

September 25

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$734,157
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 18

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$656,634
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

September 20

100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$556,624
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 7

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$523,978
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 16

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$428,264
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 9

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$344,932
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

October 5

100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$135,262
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 20

Description

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.