TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.6b

24H VOL:

$113,284,831

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,858,735,640

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,620,345,032

79,029

Markets across

1,359

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

138

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Financials
Other
Economics
Entertainment
Science and Technology
World
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
polymarket
kalshi

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Total volume:
$1,708,848
Volume 24h:
$5,623
579%
Liquidity:
$26,650
11%
Open interest:
$211,882
0.16%

Before 2027

 - Kalshi

Before 2027 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the United States recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?

5%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 5.2¢ buys you 1,923 shares | Odds: 5% Total Payout: $1,923 | Net Profit: $1,823 Multiplier: 19.23x | ROI: 1,823% APY not meaningful 66 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before 2027

Trade
5%
Yes 5.2¢No 95¢
0.2¢
N/A
$1,059,687
0.03%
N/A
$211,882
2mo 6d
active
polymarket

US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?

Trade
4%
1%
Yes 4.9¢No 96.2¢
1.1¢
$26,650
$649,161
0.82%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
Total markets: 2

Description

This event group concerns whether the United States government will formally recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran by the end of 2026. Recognition requires a direct and unqualified statement from the US government, such as designating him as 'head of state' or a similar executive role. The markets focus on an official announcement by the US government.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms share identical resolution criteria: US government recognition of Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran prior to January 1, 2027.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the US government and Donald Trump, or a consensus of credible reporting.

Core resolution logic:

  • The US government must make a direct and unqualified statement recognizing Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran.
  • Recognition can take the form of designating him as 'head of state', 'prime minister', or a similar role with primary executive authority.
  • Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not constitute recognition.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Indirect Support: Statements of support for Reza Pahlavi, even strong ones, do not qualify as official recognition unless they explicitly state he is the leader of Iran.
  • Statements by Individuals: Statements by individuals within the US government, unless explicitly representing an official policy announcement, do not count as US government recognition.
Timing: Resolution will occur upon the US government making a qualifying statement before January 1, 2027, 11:59 ET.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the "leader of Iran" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Roles that could qualify for "leader of Iran" status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "prime minister," or other similar roles that give him primary executive authority in the territory of Iran. A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Kalshi

If the United States recognizes Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.