TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Nicolás Maduro
all
3 markets
Polymarket
Predict
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Latest in Politics
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
$
Description
This prediction group asks who will be the leader of Venezuela as of December 31, 2026. The markets define 'leader' as the officially appointed, confirmed, and sworn-in head of state, with the UN's listing used as a fallback if the Venezuelan government is unclear. A 'No Head of State' option is also included.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All platforms utilize the same core definition of 'officially holds' the position, relying on formal appointment, confirmation (if required), and swearing-in, with the UN as a secondary source for determining the head of state.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If unavailable, the UN's listing of the Head of State (https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa) will be used.Core resolution logic:
- Resolution hinges on who 'officially holds' the position of head of state on December 31, 2026.
- “Officially holds” requires formal appointment, confirmation (if applicable), and swearing-in.
- The UN listing of Head of State serves as a tiebreaker if the Venezuelan government's position is unclear.
- The markets are mutually exclusive; only one individual can be the leader.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- No Clear Head of State: If no individual is officially designated as head of state by the Venezuelan government, the UN listing will determine the outcome. If the UN also does not list a head of state, the 'No Head of State' market will resolve to Yes.
- Multiple Claimants: If multiple individuals are officially listed as head of state, the individual with primary status will be used. If no distinction is made, the individual who first assumed the position will be used.
- Timing Discrepancy: Kalshi uses 10:00 AM ET, while Polymarket and Predict use 12:00 PM ET. This minor difference is unlikely to affect resolution given the nature of the event, but it's noted.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Kalshi
A person "officially holds" the head of state position if they meet any one of three criteria: (1) formally appointed, confirmed if required, and sworn in; (2) listed in official government directories or organizational charts as the head of state; or (3) actively serving with full authority and responsibilities (not suspended, on leave, or in acting/interim capacity unless explicitly specified). The following do not qualify: nomination or designation without effective appointment, appointments effective after December 31, 2026, previous service with expired or terminated terms, unofficial or consultant roles, successor designations without appointment, or oversight roles without the specified position itself. As of the April 15, 2026 clarification, Nicolás Maduro satisfies the criterion through formal appointment, swearing-in on January 10, 2025, and continued recognition by Venezuelan state institutions (National Assembly, Defense Ministry, Presidency website) as the constitutional president. Delcy Rodríguez serves only in an acting capacity and therefore does not satisfy "officially holds." Maduro's detention in the United States is not disqualifying absent formal termination, resignation, removal, or expiration of term as recognized by listed Source Agencies. Resolution reflects current facts; if circumstances change through formal removal, resignation, term expiration, or formal designation of a successor as constitutional president, Kalshi will resolve accordingly.
Predict
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.