TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Before January 2027
- Kalshi
Before January 2027 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Related News
Will Bitcoin be above $100000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00AM ET?
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Intro
This market tracks whether Bitcoin's spot price will exceed $100,000 during a specific window in 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—Bitcoin trading above $100,000 between February 17, 2026 and October 1, 2026—carries a 14.0% probability, while a longer-dated version expiring January 1, 2027 shows 4.0% probability. Resolution uses the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index as the pricing source. Watch the February 17, 2026 start date of the betting window, as Bitcoin's price action during this period will determine whether either contract resolves to Yes.
Kalshi
The event comprises four markets with sequential expiration dates (June 1, July 1, October 1, and January 1, 2027) tracking whether Bitcoin's spot price according to the CF Bitcoin Real-Time Index will exceed $100,000 during the specified measurement periods. Resolution uses a trimmed mean calculation of all BRTI minute-level values from the measurement start date through the expiration date, removing the top and bottom 20% of values and averaging the remaining 60%. If Bitcoin crosses above $100,000 at any point during the measurement window, the market resolves immediately to Yes (early expiration). If no data is available at expiration, the market resolves to No. Markets can resolve early if Bitcoin definitively crosses the threshold before the target date and time.
