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When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
kalshi

When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?

Mar 25, 2026, 8:00 PM EST - Jun 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$960,658
Volume 24h:
$7,713
82%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$699,266
0.75%

Before 2028

 - Kalshi

Before 2028 - Kalshi

1W

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Vol.

·

Resolves Jun 1, 2027

Will Tesla or SpaceX announce a definitive, binding agreement for Tesla to acquire SpaceX, SpaceX to acquire Tesla, or the two entities to merge or combine in any structure that results in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation of the two entities under common corporate ownership before Jan 1, 2028?

59%chance
Amount

$

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before 2028

Trade
59%
Yes 59¢No 44¢
3¢
N/A
$13,635
0.7%
19%
$8,844
9mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Before May 1, 2027

Trade
42%
Yes 45¢No 58¢
3¢
N/A
$69,060
0.17%
5%
$23,951
9mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2027

Trade
39%
Yes 41¢No 61¢
2¢
N/A
$41,691
0.02%
8%
$17,565
9mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Before Mar 1, 2027

Trade
32%
Yes 33¢No 69¢
2¢
N/A
$26,744
0%
0.66%
$9,881
9mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Before Feb 1, 2027

Trade
26%
Yes 25¢No 79¢
4¢
N/A
$17,952
0%
0.72%
$10,676
9mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

Trade
19%
Yes 20¢No 83¢
3¢
N/A
$33,064
2%
22%
$15,737
9mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Trade
18%
3%
Yes 19¢No 83¢
2¢
N/A
$46,727
0.23%
5%
$23,203
9mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Trade
11%
Yes 12¢No 92¢
4¢
N/A
$50,626
4%
84%
$36,212
9mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

Trade
6%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$138,759
0%
93%
$115,277
9mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2026

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$381,215
1%
20%
$337,686
9mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$87,176
N/A
N/A
$66,076
9mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Before Aug 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$45,101
N/A
N/A
$27,797
9mo 1w 1d
No
kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,908
N/A
N/A
$6,362
9mo 1w 1d
No
Total markets: 13

Description

This event series tracks whether Tesla and SpaceX announce a definitive merger or acquisition agreement by various target dates through May 2027. The announcement must come through official company channels and represent a binding agreement, not preliminary discussions or speculative statements.

Kalshi

A merger or acquisition between Tesla and SpaceX is confirmed when either company officially announces a definitive, binding agreement resulting in a transfer of controlling interest or consolidation under common ownership. The announcement must be made through official channels including press releases, SEC filings (8-K, 10-K, 10-Q), earnings calls, investor presentations, verified social media accounts, or official statements to media subsequently confirmed by the company. CEO statements qualify only if they constitute unambiguous, affirmative confirmation of a definitive signed agreement—not expressions of intent, hypotheticals, negotiation updates, or speculative comments. Rumors, speculation, unconfirmed reports, leaked information, and third-party announcements without company confirmation do not satisfy the resolution criteria. The market resolves Yes regardless of which entity is the acquirer or whether the structure is a reverse merger or stock-for-stock combination, provided a definitive agreement is publicly announced before the specified deadline.