TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.6b

24H VOL:

$113,284,831

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,858,735,640

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,620,345,032

79,029

Markets across

1,359

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

138

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
kalshi

When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?

Mar 17, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$46,448,970
Volume 24h:
$7,473,652N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$13,132,266
0%

Before Jan 1, 2029

 - Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2029 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2029?

60%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 60¢ buys you 167 shares | Odds: 60% Total Payout: $167 | Net Profit: $67 Multiplier: 1.67x | ROI: 67% High Projected APY: 1,586% 66 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2029

Trade
60%
Yes 60¢No 41¢
1¢
N/A
$53,144
0.03%
N/A
$29,330
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2028

Trade
56%
Yes 57¢No 44¢
1¢
N/A
$46,136
2%
N/A
$25,120
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2028

Trade
48%
1%
Yes 48¢No 53¢
1¢
N/A
$77,414
1%
N/A
$36,807
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2027

Trade
42%
Yes 42¢No 59¢
1¢
N/A
$10,405
8%
N/A
$5,886
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2027

Trade
41%
1%
Yes 42¢No 59¢
1¢
N/A
$75,503
0.47%
N/A
$29,711
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2027

Trade
36%
Yes 37¢No 64¢
1¢
N/A
$1,042
0.15%
N/A
$568
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2027

Trade
33%
Yes 34¢No 67¢
1¢
N/A
$1,358
0.11%
N/A
$1,291
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2027

Trade
32%
Yes 32¢No 69¢
1¢
N/A
$1,644,186
0%
N/A
$417,492
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Aug 1, 2027

Trade
32%
Yes 33¢No 68¢
1¢
N/A
$2,455
0.89%
N/A
$2,009
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2027

Trade
25%
1%
Yes 25¢No 76¢
1¢
N/A
$1,202
2%
N/A
$1,156
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2027

Trade
22%
Yes 22¢No 79¢
1¢
N/A
$846,928
0%
N/A
$261,302
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before May 1, 2027

Trade
18%
Yes 19¢No 82¢
1¢
N/A
$3,999
0.03%
N/A
$2,225
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Mar 1, 2027

Trade
12%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
N/A
$1,793
1%
N/A
$1,505
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Feb 1, 2027

Trade
9%
Yes 9¢No 94¢
3¢
N/A
$7,204
5%
N/A
$4,947
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Trade
9%
1%
Yes 8.8¢No 91.3¢
0.1¢
N/A
$3,473,484
0.01%
N/A
$1,238,026
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Dec 1, 2026

Trade
5%
Yes 6¢No 95¢
1¢
N/A
$1,636,868
0%
N/A
$531,018
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Nov 1, 2026

Trade
1%
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,901,336
0.14%
N/A
$934,016
2mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before Jun 15, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,682,385
N/A
N/A
$502,991
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Jun 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,756,962
N/A
N/A
$1,057,694
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before May 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,943,366
N/A
N/A
$847,910
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before May 15, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 99.9¢
—
N/A
$2,480,402
N/A
N/A
$639,233
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,832,948
N/A
N/A
$1,954,444
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Aug 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5,302,870
N/A
N/A
$947,870
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Sep 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$4,089,963
N/A
N/A
$1,195,773
2mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,337,752
N/A
N/A
$1,226,239
2mo 6d
No
Total markets: 25 of 27

Description

The Strait of Hormuz is a critical global shipping chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world's oil transits. This market tracks when maritime traffic through the strait returns to normal levels as measured by transit vessel calls.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by when the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by IMF PortWatch, exceeds 60 vessels. Each market outcome represents a specific deadline, with earlier dates indicating faster recovery to normal traffic levels. The event resolves Yes if the threshold is reached before the specified date, allowing traders to assess the timeline for normalization of this critical shipping route.