TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.1b
24H VOL:
$108,040,032
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,819,523,799
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,638,571,346
66,513
Markets across
1,349
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
139
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Democratic Party
all
2 markets
Polymarket
Kalshi
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Feb 1, 2027
Latest in Politics
Time left: 08d:22h:02m
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
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Description
This group forecasts which political party will control the United States House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. Control is determined by holding a majority of voting seats, or by the party affiliation of the first elected Speaker of the House if no party achieves a majority. The markets cover the Democratic and Republican parties, as well as the possibility of another party gaining control.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi markets resolve based on the same criteria for determining control of the House: majority of seats or Speaker affiliation.Primary resolution logic: Official information from relevant state electoral authorities and the United States Congress.Core resolution logic:
- Control is determined by a majority of voting seats in the House.
- If no party has a majority, control goes to the party of the first elected Speaker of the House.
- Independent members are counted based on their caucus affiliation.
- Runoff elections are included in seat attribution.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie in Seats: If both parties have an equal number of seats, the party affiliation of the first elected Speaker of the House will determine control.
- Independent Caucusing: Independents who formally caucus with a party are counted towards that party's total. If caucus decisions are unclear by January 4th of the following year, they are not counted.
- Member-Elect Changes Affiliation: If a member-elect changes party affiliation between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the party that wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected. House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with, a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
If the Democratic Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the Republican Party has won control of the House in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.