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Florida
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Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 05d:04h:38m
What states will redistrict before the 2026 Congressional elections?
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Description
This group of markets asks whether various US states will adopt new congressional maps before the 2026 midterm elections. A 'Yes' resolution requires a formally adopted map, not enjoined, and in effect for the 2026 elections. A 'No' resolution occurs if no qualifying map is in use by the time of the election.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Polymarket and Kalshi define a 'new map' as one formally adopted, not enjoined, and in effect for the 2026 elections, with a consistent resolution timeframe.Primary resolution logic: Official state legislative websites and consensus of credible reporting (e.g., Associated Press, Reuters, major national news outlets).Core resolution logic:
- A 'new map' must be formally adopted and enacted into law.
- The map must not be enjoined or fully struck down before the 2026 elections.
- The map must be in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections.
- Maps temporarily stayed pending appeal, but later upheld, will qualify if in effect for the 2026 election.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Court-Redrawn Maps: If a court completely redraws a map before implementation, it does not qualify unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 elections.
- Timing of Adoption: The map must be adopted *after* issuance of the market and *before* November 1, 2026, to qualify.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed US state uses a new congressional district map for the 2026 United States midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. To qualify, after the 2024 United States congressional elections, the listed state must have adopted a new congressional district map that is: - Formally adopted and enacted into law by the appropriate legislative or redistricting authority; - Not enjoined, vacated or otherwise fully struck down prior to the 2026 United States Midterm elections; and - In effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but later upheld will qualify if they are in effect for use in the 2026 United States midterm elections. Maps that are completely redrawn by a court, special master, or legislature before implementation will not qualify, unless the redrawn map is itself a new map used in the 2026 United States midterm elections. If the 2026 United States midterm elections occur and no new qualifying map is in use, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the listed state and a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
For each state, a qualifying redistricting outcome requires that the legislature formally adopt and enact new congressional district maps after the market's issuance and before November 1, 2026. The maps must not be enjoined, vacated, stayed, or struck down in full by any court with jurisdiction over congressional redistricting in that state as of the expiration date, and they must be in effect for use in the first scheduled federal election following their adoption. Maps that are temporarily stayed pending appeal but ultimately upheld will resolve to Yes if they remain in effect by the expiration date. However, maps that are completely redrawn by a court or special master, or maps that are withdrawn by the legislature before implementation, will resolve to No. If no new maps are adopted by November 1, 2026, the outcome resolves to No.