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Markets across
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Polymarket:
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Andy Beshear
- Polymarket
Andy Beshear - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2028
Latest in Politics
Will Andy Beshear announce a Presidential run before 2028?
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Description
This group forecasts which individuals will announce a run for the U.S. Presidency before January 1, 2028. The markets cover a wide range of potential candidates from both major parties, as well as some public figures and celebrities.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: The candidate lists and scope of acceptable announcements differ between Polymarket and Kalshi, creating potential for inconsistent resolutions.Hero tip: Focus on candidates appearing on *both* platforms for more correlated trading opportunities. Pay close attention to the specific wording of announcements, particularly regarding party affiliation.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves 'Yes' if an individual 'officially announces' a presidential run by December 31, 2027. The list of candidates is expansive and includes non-political figures. Announcement must be explicit and unambiguous.
- Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if an individual announces a presidential campaign to contest the *Republican* party nomination by January 1, 2028. The list is focused on political figures, and the announcement must be for the Republican nomination.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. A qualifying announcement must be explicit and unambiguous. Conditional statements, or statements that are clearly sarcastic, made in jest, or immediately clarified as not being genuine will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
An individual market resolves to Yes if the corresponding person publicly announces a presidential campaign to contest the Republican Party's nomination for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before January 1, 2028. Each person tracked—including current and former government officials, business figures, and media personalities—has a separate market. The announcement must explicitly indicate an intention to seek the Republican presidential nomination in 2028. All markets operate independently, meaning multiple individuals may announce campaigns, resulting in multiple Yes resolutions across different markets within this event.