TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.6b

24H VOL:

$113,284,831

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,858,735,640

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,620,345,032

79,029

Markets across

1,359

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

138

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?
polymarket
predict

Will Arc launch a token by ___ ?

Total volume:
$1,153,867
Volume 24h:
$688,726
53,474%
Liquidity:
$322,505
0.19%
Open interest:
$74,995N/A

December 31, 2027

 - Polymarket

December 31, 2027 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2027

Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2027?

69%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 68.6¢ buys you 146 shares | Odds: 69% Total Payout: $146 | Net Profit: $46 Multiplier: 1.46x | ROI: 46% | APY: 38% 430 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

December 31, 2027

Trade
69%
3%
Yes 68.6¢No 31.5¢
0.1¢
$2,121
$7,543
0.55%
N/A
N/A
1y 2mo
active
polymarket

June 30, 2027

Trade
42%
1%
Yes 44¢No 60¢
4¢
$774
$20,250
0.35%
N/A
N/A
8mo 6d
active
predict

December 31, 2026

Trade
28%
Yes 28.2¢No 72.4¢
0.6¢
$38,204
$280,248
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

December 31, 2026

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
$10,793
$185,837
0.03%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
19.4%
Yes 17.6¢No 83.2¢
Avg: 0.8¢Max: 1¢
predict

September 30, 2026

Trade
2%
Yes 2.6¢No 98.1¢
0.7¢
$270,612
$186,878
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

September 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$221,426
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
1.1%
Yes 1.3¢No 99.1¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 0.7¢
polymarket

June 30, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$117,440
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

June 30, 2026

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$65,953
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
polymarket

March 31, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$51,844
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

December 31, 2025

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$16,449
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This group of markets asks whether Arc, a social media platform, will launch a governance token by a specified date. Resolution depends on the official launch of a publicly transferable and tradable token, not just announcements. The markets span various dates from 2025 to 2027.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms utilize identical resolution criteria regarding the launch of a transferable and tradable token, and rely on Arc's official announcements as the primary source.Primary resolution logic: Information from Arc, with a consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves to 'Yes' if Arc officially launches a governance token.
  • The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable.
  • Announcements alone do not qualify as a launch.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Airdrops: An airdrop of tokens, without the ability to publicly trade them on an exchange, does not resolve the market to 'Yes'.
  • Testnet Tokens: Tokens launched on a testnet are not considered a public launch and will not resolve the market to 'Yes'.
  • Delayed Launch: If the token launch is announced *on* the resolution date but trading doesn't begin until after 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to 'No'.
Timing: Resolution will occur upon the official launch of a publicly transferable and tradable token by Arc, up to and including 11:59 PM ET on the specified date.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.