TOTAL VOLUME:
$26.9b
24H VOL:
$53,643,865
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,063,853,505
56,734
Markets across
1,194
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
96
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Polymarket
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Latest in Politics
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
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Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
Intro
This market tracks the likelihood of a Chinese military offensive against Taiwan aimed at establishing control over any portion of the island or its administered territories by the end of 2026. On Polymarket, the probability of a Chinese invasion occurring stands at 3.8%. Resolution will be determined by official confirmation from China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent UN Security Council member, with credible reporting consensus also considered valid. Watch for any significant military escalation or official statements from these authorities as the December 31, 2026 resolution deadline approaches.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China including any inhabited islands will qualify, however uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
