TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.6b

24H VOL:

$113,284,831

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,858,735,640

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,620,345,032

79,029

Markets across

1,359

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

138

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
predict
polymarket

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

Total volume:
$25,748,681
Volume 24h:
$655,866
40,113%
Liquidity:
$355,668
0.63%
Open interest:
$608,681N/A

December 31

all

2 markets

Predict

Polymarket

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?

5%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
predict

Trade on Predict

At 5.4¢ buys you 1,852 shares | Odds: 5% Total Payout: $1,852 | Net Profit: $1,752 Multiplier: 18.52x | ROI: 1,752% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
predict

December 31

Trade
5%
Yes 5.4¢No 94.7¢
0.1¢
$259,806
$653,812
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
3%
Yes 3.2¢No 96.9¢
0.1¢
$95,862
$2,620,697
0.08%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
3.6%
Yes 4.3¢No 95.8¢
Avg: 0.1¢Max: 0.1¢
polymarket

March 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,547,234
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,617,007
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

March 31

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$2,490,924
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,807,115
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

April 30

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,638,699
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

January 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$547,335
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

February 28

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$451,402
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
predict

June 30

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
$374,457
N/A
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This group of markets tracks whether Reza Pahlavi, the exiled Crown Prince of Iran, will physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran by various specified deadlines in 2026. All markets share the same core resolution criteria but differ only in their deadline dates.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All markets share identical resolution logic: physical terrestrial entry of Reza Pahlavi within the specified timeframe, verified by credible reporting consensus.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

  • A 'Yes' outcome requires Reza Pahlavi to physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran
  • Entry must occur between market creation and the specified deadline (11:59 PM ET)
  • Airspace or maritime entry does not satisfy the resolution criteria
  • Resolution depends on consensus from credible reporting sources

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • Territorial Definition: Only physical entry into Iran's land territory counts - no airspace or maritime exceptions
  • Reporting Threshold: Requires consensus from credible reporting, not single-source confirmation
Timing: Markets resolve after the specified deadline based on whether the event occurred during the periodOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Predict

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and June 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.