Name: Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Start: 2026-03-01T03:38:32.366Z
End: 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z

Description

This event group addresses whether Reza Pahlavi will de facto lead Iran as head of state by December 31, 2026. The criteria require him to exercise primary governing authority over Iranian state institutions, including control over armed forces, national institutions, and executive decision-making, regardless of formal titles or international recognition.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms share identical resolution criteria requiring Reza Pahlavi to exercise de facto control over Iran's governing functions by December 31, 2026, with no formal title or recognition requirements.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

Reza Pahlavi must exercise primary governing authority over Iran by December 31, 2026
Effective control over armed forces, national institutions, and executive decision-making is required
Formal titles, UN recognition, or foreign government recognition are not required
Symbolic status, exile leadership without domestic control, or ceremonial roles do not qualify

Edge cases & clarifications:

No effective governing control: If Iran experiences a period with no individual exercising effective control, it does not qualify unless Pahlavi meets criteria later
Transitional authority: Transitional or ceremonial authority without governing control does not meet requirements

Timing: Resolution occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET based on consensus of credible reportingOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

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