Name: Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
Start: 2026-03-01T03:38:32.366Z
End: 2027-01-01T05:00:00.000Z

Description

This event group asks whether Reza Pahlavi will be the de facto leader of Iran by December 31, 2026. Resolution hinges on him exercising primary governing authority, controlling key institutions, and enforcing laws, regardless of formal titles or international recognition. It's about actual power, not symbolic status.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both Polymarket and Predict utilize identical resolution criteria and descriptions, focusing on de facto control rather than formal recognition.Primary resolution logic: Consensus of credible reporting

Core resolution logic:

Reza Pahlavi must exercise primary governing authority over Iran.
This authority must include effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making.
Formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition are not required.
Symbolic status, exile leadership, or nomination without authority do not qualify.

Edge cases & clarifications:

No Clear Leader: If no individual exercises effective governing control, this does not automatically resolve to 'Yes' unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria.
Transitional Period: A brief transitional period where Reza Pahlavi lacks full governing control will not qualify as a 'Yes' resolution.

Timing: Resolution will occur upon a consensus of credible reporting confirming whether Reza Pahlavi exercises primary governing authority over Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Predict

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Reza Pahlavi de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Reza Pahlavi will be considered to hold power if he exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state during the specified timeframe, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, exile leadership without effective authority inside Iran, nomination without effective authority, or ceremonial or transitional status without governing control will not qualify. If Iran experiences a period in which no individual exercises effective governing control, this will not alone qualify for a “Yes” resolution unless Reza Pahlavi subsequently meets the criteria above within the specified timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?

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