TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.6b

24H VOL:

$113,284,831

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,858,735,640

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,620,345,032

79,029

Markets across

1,359

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

138

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin before 2027?
kalshi

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin before 2027?

Oct 18, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 12:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$863,369
Volume 24h:
$36,148
45%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$227,160
0.49%

Before 2027

 - Kalshi

Before 2027 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin by 2027?

5%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 5¢ buys you 2,000 shares | Odds: 5% Total Payout: $2,000 | Net Profit: $1,900 Multiplier: 20.00x | ROI: 1,900% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before 2027

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$863,369
4%
N/A
$227,160
2mo 5d
active
Total markets: 1

Description

This event tracks whether any wallet associated with Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer will record an outflow or swap transaction prior to a specified date in 2027. It focuses on monitoring potential financial activity linked to the creator of Bitcoin. The occurrence of such transactions would trigger the event's condition.

Kalshi

If any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before January 01, 2027, 12:00 AM ET, the market resolves to Yes.