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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Polymarket
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? - Polymarket
1W
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Positive
Negative
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Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 31, 2026
Latest in Politics
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
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Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
Intro
This market tracks the likelihood of a U.S. military offensive against Iran aimed at establishing control over Iranian territory. On Polymarket, the probability of a U.S. invasion occurring stands at 22.5%. Resolution will be determined by a consensus of credible sources, with the market settling based on whether the United States initiates such an offensive by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Watch for developments in U.S.–Iran diplomatic relations and regional military activity through the end of 2026, when the betting period closes.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
