TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
David Crowley (D)
- Polymarket
David Crowley (D) - Polymarket
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 7, 2027
Latest in Politics
Time left: 07d:18h:38m
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
$
Description
This event group concerns the outcome of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. Markets aim to predict whether the Democratic or Republican party will win the governorship, with some platforms offering markets on specific candidates or 'other' options.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket rely on the outcome of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election, with a fallback to official certification, and exclude independent candidates from representing either major party.Primary resolution logic: Associated Press, Fox News, and NBCCore resolution logic:
- The market resolves to 'Yes' if a Democratic or Republican candidate is inaugurated as governor.
- Resolution depends on the official call of the race by Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC; otherwise, it defaults to official certification.
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Tie: In the extremely unlikely event of a tie, the official certification will determine the winner.
- Candidate Withdrawal: If a major party nominee withdraws before the election, markets on that candidate will likely resolve to 'No', while the overall election market will continue based on the remaining candidates.
- Disputed Election: If the election results are heavily disputed and subject to legal challenges, resolution will await the final outcome determined by the courts and official certification.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Kalshi
The event resolves to Yes if either major political party—Democratic or Republican—wins the 2026 Wisconsin gubernatorial election and its nominee is inaugurated as governor. The determination hinges exclusively on the party affiliation of the successful candidate post-election, regardless of any secondary considerations or procedural nuances that might occur during the electoral process. No other conditions or party representatives outside this specific election outcome affect the resolution.