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2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
kalshi

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

Feb 4, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Nov 3, 2027, 9:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$1,156,322
Volume 24h:
$46,522
1,285%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$899,745
5%

Democrats, 8 to 10%

 - Kalshi

Democrats, 8 to 10% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2027

Will the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote be between 8 and 10%?

27%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 27¢ buys you 370 shares | Odds: 27% Total Payout: $370 | Net Profit: $270 Multiplier: 3.70x | ROI: 270% | APY: 202% 433 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Democrats, 8 to 10%

Trade
27%
Yes 27¢No 74¢
1¢
N/A
$118,508
2%
41%
$103,691
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 6 to 8%

Trade
23%
Yes 24¢No 77¢
1¢
N/A
$75,035
4%
9%
$66,639
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 10 to 12%

Trade
20%
Yes 20¢No 81¢
1¢
N/A
$93,574
2%
29%
$75,792
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 4 to 6%

Trade
13%
Yes 13¢No 90¢
3¢
N/A
$35,019
9%
40%
$30,826
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Republicans win

Trade
9%
Yes 8.9¢No 91.2¢
0.1¢
N/A
$429,080
1%
3%
$305,848
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 12 to 14%

Trade
8%
Yes 8.4¢No 91.9¢
0.3¢
N/A
$63,804
4%
13%
$50,701
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 2 to 4%

Trade
6%
1%
Yes 7.4¢No 93.9¢
1.3¢
N/A
$108,699
13%
74%
$95,731
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 14 to 16%

Trade
2%
Yes 2.2¢No 97.9¢
0.1¢
N/A
$51,100
0%
16%
$40,009
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 0 to 2%

Trade
2%
Yes 2.1¢No 98.7¢
0.8¢
N/A
$136,976
15%
107%
$102,457
1y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Democrats, 16% and above

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.3¢
0.3¢
N/A
$44,528
0%
10%
$28,052
1y 2mo 1w
active
Total markets: 10

Description

These markets track the national popular vote margin in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives general election, calculated as the total vote percentage for all Democratic candidates minus the total vote percentage for all Republican candidates. Each market corresponds to a specific margin range, allowing traders to bet on whether the final result falls within that band.

Kalshi

The national House popular vote margin is calculated as the vote percentage received by all Democratic party House candidates in the general election minus the vote percentage received by all Republican party House candidates in the general election. The margin will be positive if Democrats win the national House popular vote and negative if Republicans win. Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, with no rounding applied to the calculated margin. For example, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range. The markets partition all possible outcomes across ten distinct ranges: Republican wins (negative margins from -100 to 0), Democratic narrow wins (0 to 2%), and progressively larger Democratic victories (2-4%, 4-6%, 6-8%, 8-10%, 10-12%, 12-14%, 14-16%, and 16% or greater). Resolution occurs upon release of the official national House popular vote data.