TOTAL VOLUME:
$26.9b
24H VOL:
$53,643,865
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,063,853,505
56,734
Markets across
1,194
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
96
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
Mahmoud Khalil
- Kalshi
Mahmoud Khalil - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Related News
Will Mahmoud Khalil be arrested before Jan 2027?
$
Description
This event group tracks whether Raul Castro will be taken into U.S. government custody by specific deadlines (June 30, May 31, or December 31, 2026). The markets resolve to 'Yes' only if U.S. personnel physically detain, arrest, capture, or assume custodial control of Castro, excluding voluntary interactions or custody by non-U.S. entities without subsequent transfer.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
All markets share identical custody criteria and deadlines, with consistent resolution sources.Primary resolution logic: Official information from the U.S. government and consensus of credible reportingCore resolution logic:
- U.S. personnel must physically detain, arrest, capture, or assume custodial control of Raul Castro
- Voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel counts as custody
- Custody by non-U.S. entities only counts if U.S. personnel assume control or receive a subsequent transfer
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Voluntary Interaction: Visits or interactions without detention do not qualify, even if occurring in U.S. spaces
- Non-U.S. Custody Transfer: Only qualifies if U.S. personnel assume control or receive a subsequent transfer
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Raul Castro is taken into U.S. government custody at any point by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Raul Castro will be considered taken into U.S. government custody if U.S. government personnel (including military, CIA, personnel of another agency, or contractors acting under direct U.S. government authority) physically detain, arrest, capture, or otherwise assume physical custodial control of Raul Castro, regardless of location or duration. Visits, interactions with U.S. government personnel, or Raul Castro’s presence in U.S. spaces (including vessels, bases, facilities, or meetings) in a voluntary, non-detained capacity will not qualify. A voluntary surrender to U.S. personnel in which Raul Castro submits to U.S. custody, however, will qualify. Custody that is carried out by non-U.S. entities (including allied or partner forces) will not qualify unless U.S. personnel are physically present and themselves assume custodial control of Raul Castro, or unless a subsequent transfer into U.S. custody occurs. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the U.S. government and a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
If Gavin Newsom is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lee Jun-seok is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Bill Clinton is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Anthony Fauci is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Barack Obama is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Hillary Clinton is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If James Clapper is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Brennan is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Susan Rice is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If John Kerry is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Loretta Lynch is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Adam Schiff is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lisa Cook is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Mahmoud Khalil is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Letitia James is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Tom Homan is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Joe Biden is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Brandon Johnson is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Benjamin Netanyahu is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Pam Bondi is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Kash Patel is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Candace Owens is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If Lee Jae Myung is arrested before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
