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56,900

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Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?
kalshi
polymarket

Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?

Total volume:
$2,812,389
Volume 24h:
$11,864
1,944%
Liquidity:
$29,420
68%
Open interest:
$345,477
3%

Before December 1, 2026

 - Kalshi

Before December 1, 2026 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will Miguel Díaz-Canel leave office before 2026-12-01T15:00:00.000Z?

11%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 15¢ buys you 667 shares | Odds: 11% Total Payout: $667 | Net Profit: $567 Multiplier: 6.67x | ROI: 567% APY not meaningful 126 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before December 1, 2026

Trade
11%
4%
Yes 15¢No 89¢
4¢
N/A
$95
2%
N/A
$95
4mo 6d
active
polymarket

December 31

Trade
18%
Yes 18¢No 83¢
1¢
$29,420
$609,124
0.13%
0.95%
N/A
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before September 1, 2026

Trade
2%
Yes 1.9¢No 99.7¢
1.6¢
N/A
$186,752
6%
18%
$101,271
4mo 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
10%
Yes 10¢No 91.4¢
Avg: 1.3¢Max: 1.6¢
kalshi

Before November 1, 2026

Trade
5%
Yes 13¢No 95¢
8¢
N/A
$15
0%
N/A
$15
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before October 1, 2026

Trade
2%
Yes 10¢No 98¢
8¢
N/A
$1
0%
N/A
$1
4mo 6d
active
kalshi

Before July 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$154,173
N/A
N/A
$86,140
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before August 1, 2026

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$61,246
N/A
N/A
$33,871
4mo 6d
No
kalshi

Before June 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$281,609
N/A
N/A
$124,084
4mo 6d
No
polymarket

June 30

View
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$1,098,117
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
polymarket

March 31

View
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$421,256
N/A
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event group tracks whether Miguel Díaz-Canel will cease to be President of Cuba by specified future dates. Markets differ in their end dates and platforms, creating potential resolution timing mismatches.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Timing mismatch across platforms due to different end dates and resolution triggersHero tip: Monitor announcement dates closely; a pre-September 1 departure resolves Polymarket markets immediately but Kalshi markets remain open until September 1, 2026

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves immediately upon announcement of resignation/removal before specified end date (June 30, December 31, or March 31); uses official government information or credible reporting consensus
  • Kalshi: All markets resolve on September 1, 2026 regardless of actual departure date; resolves to Yes if departure occurs before September 1, 2026
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Cuba’s current leader, Miguel Díaz-Canel, is removed from power for any length of time by the listed date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, Díaz-Canel will be considered to be removed from power if he resigns, is detained, or otherwise ceases to hold (or is publicly reported to be unable to perform the duties of) the office of First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba, which is widely regarded as Cuba’s top political post, within this market’s timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Kalshi

The event comprises four separate markets with sequential expiration dates (June 1, July 1, August 1, and September 1, 2026), each resolving Yes if Miguel Díaz-Canel departs from either his position as First Secretary of the Communist Party of Cuba or President of Cuba before the specified date. An announcement of his intended departure within the following year also triggers resolution. If departure occurs solely due to death, the Exchange determines payouts based on the last traded price prior to death, or the Outcome Review Committee establishes fair settlement value if no reliable last price exists. The clarification confirms that departure from either of his two positions satisfies the payout criterion.