TOTAL VOLUME:
$26.9b
24H VOL:
$53,643,865
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,063,853,505
56,734
Markets across
1,194
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
96
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
Before 2027
all
2 markets
Kalshi
Polymarket
consensus
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 8, 2027
Latest in Politics
Will Tim Walz leave the governorship of Minnesota after Issuance and before 2027?
$
Description
This event group tracks whether Tim Walz will resign as Governor of Minnesota by various specified dates across two prediction markets. The markets differ in their resolution timelines and specific conditions for 'Yes' outcomes.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Timing mismatch and scope difference between platforms: Polymarket focuses on announcement timing, while Kalshi focuses on actual departure timing with extended windows.Hero tip: Monitor official announcements and actual resignation dates. Trades may diverge if Walz announces resignation but delays effective date past Polymarket's cutoff.Critical divergence points:
- Polymarket: Resolves to Yes if Walz announces resignation by the listed date, regardless of actual resignation. Key quote: 'For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Tim Walz announce that he has resigned or will resign.'
- Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if Walz leaves office before specified future dates (July 2026, Sep 2026, 2027). Key quote: 'If Tim Walz leaves as Governor of Minnesota after Issuance and before [date], then the market resolves to Yes.'
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Walz announces he has resigned or will resign as Governor of Minnesota by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If it becomes impossible for Tim Walz to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Tim Walz announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government or the government of Minnesota; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Kalshi
These markets resolve to Yes if Tim Walz ceases to hold the office of Governor of Minnesota by the specified deadline through any means of departure, including voluntary resignation, removal, death, or expiration of term. Temporary leaves of absence or suspensions do not constitute leaving the role. If he vacates and then re-occupies the position, resolution occurs upon the initial vacation. The three outcomes track departures before July 2026, before September 1, 2026, and before the end of 2026, respectively.
