TOTAL VOLUME:
$27.2b
24H VOL:
$69,287,501
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,087,562,910
57,539
Markets across
1,212
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
98
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
Before Jan 1, 2029
- Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2029 - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Politics
Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2029?
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Description
This event group tracks when traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels, defined as a 7-day moving average of transit calls above 60 as reported by IMF PortWatch.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both Kalshi and Polymarket markets resolve based on the same core criteria: IMF PortWatch publishing a 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transit calls at or above 60, with the qualifying month being the calendar month containing the first such data point.Primary resolution logic: IMF PortWatch (https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730)Core resolution logic:
- The market resolves as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above 60
- The qualifying month is the calendar month containing the date of the first qualifying data point
- Revisions to previously published data points within the market timeframe are considered, but do not disqualify earlier qualifying points
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Data Integrity Issues: If obvious data integrity issues occur, the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day after the data is first released to allow for corrections
- Late Data: If no data is published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, the market resolves based on data published up to that point
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to the next month for which IMF Portwatch publishes a daily 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. The qualifying month will be the calendar month containing the date associated with the first qualifying data point published by IMF PortWatch. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date of the specified month, and no such value has been published. If data is published for December 31, 2026 and a qualifying data point has not been published for any month, this market will resolve to “No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026.” If no data has been published for December 31, 2026 by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date in the specified month, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Kalshi
Resolution is determined by when the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz, as reported by IMF PortWatch, exceeds 60 vessels. Each market outcome represents a specific deadline, with earlier dates indicating faster recovery to normal traffic levels. The event resolves Yes if the threshold is reached before the specified date, allowing traders to assess the timeline for normalization of this critical shipping route.
