TOTAL VOLUME:
$27.2b
24H VOL:
$69,287,501
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,380,975,298
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,087,562,910
57,539
Markets across
1,212
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
98
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
Karoline Leavitt
- Kalshi
Karoline Leavitt - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 7, 2027
Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027?
$
Description
This event group tracks whether any member of the Trump Cabinet will depart their position before the end of 2026. Kalshi offers binary yes/no markets for 34 specific cabinet members, while Polymarket offers a multi-outcome market identifying which individual (if any) will be the next to leave, with an 'Other' category for unlisted officials.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Kalshi and Polymarket use fundamentally different Cabinet definitions. Kalshi includes 34 positions spanning traditional cabinet, White House staff, and independent agency heads. Polymarket restricts resolution to 11 executive departments plus 6 specific agency/office heads, explicitly excluding press secretaries, trade envoys, and several other roles Kalshi covers.Hero tip: Identify which individuals appear on both platforms' lists. Only departures of those individuals will resolve both markets consistently. Kalshi-only positions (Press Secretary, Border Czar, FCC Chair, CMS Administrator, FHFA Director, DOGE Service Administrator, Special Envoy to Middle East, Deputy Chief of Staff, White House Communications Director) will resolve Kalshi YES but leave Polymarket unaffected. For Polymarket, focus on the 17 core Cabinet roles it explicitly defines.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Offers 34 binary YES/NO markets covering a broad range of Trump administration officials including traditional cabinet secretaries, White House staff (Chief of Staff, Press Secretary, Communications Director, Deputy Chief of Staff), independent agency heads (FCC, CMS, FHFA, DOGE), and special envoys. Resolution is YES if any listed individual leaves their position before 2027.
- Polymarket: Offers a multi-outcome market with explicit Cabinet definition limited to: VP, 15 executive department heads, EPA Administrator, Chief of Staff, DNI, OMB Director, CIA Director, USTR, UN Ambassador, CEA Chair, and SBA Administrator. Explicitly excludes Acting officials, OSTP Director, and positions like Press Secretary. Resolution identifies the single next individual to leave from this narrower set, or 'None before 2027' if no departures occur.
Polymarket
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Kalshi
These markets resolve to Yes if the specified individual ceases to hold their designated position in the Trump administration before 2027 through any means of departure, including voluntary or involuntary resignation, removal, expiration of term, death, or other cessation of role occupancy. Temporary leaves of absence or suspensions do not constitute leaving the role. If an individual vacates and then re-occupies the position, resolution occurs upon the initial vacation. The 34 outcomes track potential departures of various cabinet secretaries, senior advisors, and administration officials including the FBI Director, Secretary of Defense, Director of National Intelligence, HHS Secretary, Chief of Staff, and numerous other positions.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction markets and polls measure different things: polls capture public opinion snapshots, while this market reflects traders' financial commitments to specific outcomes. Market participants often incorporate news, insider signals, and political analysis that may not yet appear in traditional surveys. The 24-hour volume of $18,542 shows active repricing as new information emerges, meaning odds can shift faster than polling cycles. Both tools offer value—polls for broad sentiment, markets for concentrated bets on concrete events.
Polymarket currently favors Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? at 47.4%, while Kalshi leans toward Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027? at 99.8%. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each venue attracts different trader demographics, liquidity pools, and risk tolerances. Regulatory frameworks and contract design also vary between platforms, influencing how participants structure their positions. These differences typically narrow as new information spreads, but temporary price gaps create arbitrage opportunities for attentive traders monitoring both venues simultaneously.
This market resolves around Jan 7, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once any Cabinet departure is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether an official announcement or credible news source documents a resignation, removal, or departure before that deadline. Until then, this market remains active and reprices continuously as political developments unfold. Traders should monitor official statements and major news outlets for the events that will ultimately settle this contract.
Major catalysts include public statements from Cabinet members about their tenure, media reports on internal conflicts, legislative controversies affecting specific officials, or direct announcements from the White House. Personnel reshuffles, scandals, or policy disagreements often precede departures and can shift odds sharply. Earnings calls, congressional testimony, and investigative journalism may also surface information that traders incorporate into their positions. Monitoring political news closely helps traders anticipate the repricing that typically follows significant developments in the administration.
