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56,734
Markets across
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PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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47%
Anthony Fauci
- Kalshi
Anthony Fauci - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Politics
Will Anthony Fauci be charged with a any crime before Jan 1, 2027?
$
Description
This event group concerns whether Tyler Robinson will be convicted of homicide in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON case. The market will resolve based on the official judgment delivered by the ruling court.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms agree that a homicide conviction in the Utah case by July 31, 2027 resolves to Yes; all other outcomes resolve to No.Primary resolution logic: Official judgment delivered by the ruling court in STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSONCore resolution logic:
- Market resolves to Yes only if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the specified Utah case by July 31, 2027
- Market resolves to No for plea agreements without guilt admission, dismissals, charge changes removing homicide, mistrials without conviction by deadline, or any non-conviction outcome
- Appeals do not affect resolution; only the initial judgment matters
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Plea Agreement Without Guilt Admission: Resolves to No even if the case is dismissed or resolved through a plea that does not include an admission of guilt
- Charge Modification: If the specific charge is changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense, the market resolves to No immediately
- Mistrial Scenario: Market remains open until July 31, 2027; if no homicide conviction is rendered by that date, resolves to No
Polymarket
Tyler Robinson has been charged with Aggravated Murder by The State of Utah for the death of Charlie Kirk. You can read more about that here: https://atty.utahcounty.gov/cms/uploads/TJR_Information_49872215e3.pdf This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tyler Robinson is convicted of any criminal homicide offense in the ongoing STATE OF UTAH v. TYLER JAMES ROBINSON (OTN: 70090584) by July 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If this case ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No". If this specific charge is dropped, or otherwise changed such that it is no longer considered a criminal homicide offense (https://le.utah.gov/xcode/Title76/Chapter5/76-5-S201.html), this market will immediately resolve to "No". If there is a mistrial, this market will stay open until the resolution date (July 31) to consider further retrials. If a homicide conviction has not been rendered by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve according to the initial judgment rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may be used.
Kalshi
Each outcome resolves to Yes if the specified individual is formally charged with a federal crime after the market's issuance and before January 1, 2027. Formal charges require filing a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court; charges filed in military courts are included. Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute formal charges. Traffic violations not requiring court appearances and sealed charges remaining sealed through the deadline do not count. If charges are filed and then dismissed before the deadline, the market still resolves to Yes. Pre-trial diversion agreements involving formal charges count as charges. The reinstatement of charges filed prior to issuance does not count; only new charging documents filed after issuance trigger the payout criterion.
