TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.1b

24H VOL:

$94,100,224

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,819,523,799

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,635,541,893

67,901

Markets across

1,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

139

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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AI capability growth this year?
kalshi

AI capability growth this year?

Jan 6, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Jan 2, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$326,980
Volume 24h:
$208,591
11,192%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$132,239
225%

At least 1540 score

 - Kalshi

At least 1540 score - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 2, 2027

Will any AI model have a score of at least 1540 before Jan 1, 2027

51%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 49¢ buys you 204 shares | Odds: 51% Total Payout: $204 | Net Profit: $104 Multiplier: 2.04x | ROI: 104% High Projected APY: 4,502% 68 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

At least 1540 score

Trade
51%
1%
Yes 49¢No 52¢
1¢
N/A
$18,527
0.26%
N/A
$5,940
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

At least 1550 score

Trade
26%
Yes 32¢No 70¢
2¢
N/A
$66,062
0%
N/A
$21,241
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

At least 1600 score

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 96¢
1¢
N/A
$22,722
0%
N/A
$6,902
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

At least 1650 score

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$5,482
0%
N/A
$2,929
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

At least 1750 score

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$3,842
0%
N/A
$2,835
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

At least 1700 score

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$1,802
0%
N/A
$840
2mo 1w 1d
active
kalshi

At least 1520 score

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$143,452
N/A
N/A
$42,772
2mo 1w 1d
Yes
kalshi

At least 1530 score

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$65,092
N/A
N/A
$48,780
2mo 1w 1d
Yes
Total markets: 8

Description

This set of outcomes tracks advancements in artificial intelligence capabilities as measured by LMSYS leaderboard scores achieved before January 1, 2027. It reflects how far AI systems progress in handling complex tasks during this timeframe.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on whether any AI model achieves specific benchmark scores on the LMSYS leaderboard before January 1, 2027. The thresholds range from 1520 to 1750 in increments of 10 points. If a model reaches or exceeds any given threshold before the deadline, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. The event tracks progressive milestones in AI performance, with higher thresholds representing increasingly sophisticated capabilities.