TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.6b

24H VOL:

$113,284,831

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,858,735,640

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,620,345,032

79,029

Markets across

1,359

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

138

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

BETA
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Economics
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
polymarket

China Annual GDP Growth 2026

Jan 21, 2026, 6:23 PM EST - Jan 31, 2027, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$943,620
Volume 24h:
$4,713
308%
Liquidity:
$101,171
4%
Open interest:
$95,337N/A

4.0–5.0%

 - Polymarket

4.0–5.0% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 31, 2027

Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?

96%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 97.2¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 96% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 11% 95 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

4.0–5.0%

Trade
96%
1%
Yes 97.2¢No 4.7¢
1.9¢
$11,996
$247,159
0%
N/A
N/A
3mo 5d
active
polymarket

5.0–6.0%

2%
1%
Yes 3.3¢No 98.4¢
1.7¢
$6,741
$88,069
0.74%
N/A
N/A
3mo 5d
active
polymarket

3.0–4.0%

1%
Yes 1.1¢No 99.3¢
0.4¢
$7,043
$87,779
0%
N/A
N/A
3mo 5d
active
polymarket

9.0%+

0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$1,561
$117,669
0.01%
25%
N/A
3mo 5d
disputed
polymarket

8.0–9.0%

0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$18,544
$54,862
0%
3%
N/A
3mo 5d
disputed
polymarket

2.0–3.0%

0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.9¢
0.2¢
$10,149
$46,749
0%
N/A
N/A
3mo 5d
active
polymarket

6.0-7.0%

0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$20,550
$91,349
0%
N/A
N/A
3mo 5d
active
polymarket

1.0–2.0%

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,192
$76,402
0%
N/A
N/A
3mo 5d
active
polymarket

<1.0%

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$6,691
$68,209
0%
N/A
N/A
3mo 5d
active
polymarket

7.0–8.0%

0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$16,704
$65,373
0%
N/A
N/A
3mo 5d
active
Total markets: 10

Description

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the full year of 2026, as reported in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for the fourth quarter and full year of 2026, scheduled for some time in January, 2027. The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year of 2026” under “Growth Rate Y/Y (%)” in the row “GDP” and the column “Year 2026”. The annual GDP Y/Y growth rate will still be considered if China’s GDP reporting format changes. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ If no figure for the full year 2026 Y/Y GDP growth rate is reported, this market will resolve according to the Y/Y growth rate for Q4 2026. If no data for the specified year and quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.