TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Hike 25bps
- Kalshi
Hike 25bps - Kalshi
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 9, 2026
Latest in Economics
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting?
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Description
This event tracks the direction of the Federal Reserve's key interest rate adjustment at its scheduled meeting in December 2026. The outcome depends on whether the Fed raises, lowers, or maintains the rate, with specific thresholds defining each possible resolution.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the Federal Reserve's official interest rate decision at its December 9, 2026 meeting. Markets are mutually exclusive, meaning only one outcome can resolve to Yes depending on the exact magnitude of any rate change. A 'Cut >25bps' resolves Yes if the Fed reduces rates by more than 25 basis points. A 'Cut 25bps' resolves Yes if the Fed reduces rates exactly by 25 basis points. 'Fed maintains rate' resolves Yes if there is no change in the rate. 'Hike 25bps' resolves Yes if the Fed increases rates by exactly 25 basis points, while 'Hike >25bps' resolves Yes if the increase exceeds 25 basis points (e.g., 50bps). If a scheduled meeting is canceled after May 2025, the 'Fed maintains rate' market resolves to Yes and all others resolve to No.
