TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Above 3.50%
- Kalshi
Above 3.50% - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Dec 9, 2026
Latest in Economics
Will the upper bound of the federal funds rate be above 3.50% following the Fed's Dec 9, 2026 meeting?
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Description
This event tracks potential changes in the U.S. federal funds rate following a specific Federal Reserve meeting in December 2026. The rate serves as a key tool for the central bank to influence economic activity and inflation. Outcomes hinge on whether the published rate exceeds various thresholds set after the meeting.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based on the upper bound of the target federal funds rate published by the Federal Reserve following its December 9, 2026 meeting. Each market corresponds to a specific rate threshold, ranging from above 2.75% to above 5.25%. If the published upper bound exceeds the specified threshold for a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share the same expiration timeline: they close at 2:05 PM ET on the first business day following the release of the Federal Reserve's policy statement from the December 9, 2026 meeting, or, if the statement is not released that day, one week after the meeting's final day. This structure allows participants to assess varying degrees of potential rate hikes through distinct outcome thresholds, all governed by a unified expiration framework tied to the Fed's official announcement schedule.
