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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Latest in Elections
Will exactly 2 Senate Republican members lose their primary in 2026?
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Description
The 2026 midterm elections will include Republican Senate primaries across the country. This event counts how many sitting Republican U.S. Senators lose their party's primary election before November 3, 2026, and resolves based on the exact count falling into one of five categories: zero, one, two, three, or four or more incumbents defeated.
Kalshi
Resolution depends on counting Republican Senate incumbents who lose their primary election in 2026 before November 3. To qualify for inclusion, a candidate must be running for re-election to the same legislative body (Senate) for the Republican Party as of their primary date, with the primary election held on the same date as most Congressional elections in 2026 (typically an early Tuesday in November). The candidate must lose the Republican primary to another candidate. In non-partisan or top-two primary systems, an incumbent advancing to the general election is not considered to have lost, regardless of placement relative to other advancing candidates. If primaries for both an unexpired term (special election) and the next full term (general election) are held concurrently, only results from the full-term primary are counted. The market resolves to the outcome matching the final count: exactly 0, exactly 1, exactly 2, exactly 3, or 4 or more Republican Senate incumbents defeated in their primaries.
