TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.6b

24H VOL:

$113,284,831

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,858,735,640

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,620,345,032

79,029

Markets across

1,359

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

138

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Financials
Other
Economics
Entertainment
Science and Technology
World
How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
polymarket

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Dec 11, 2025, 7:45 PM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$525,819
Volume 24h:
$61
78%
Liquidity:
$13,276
4%
Open interest:
$13,702N/A

<5

 - Polymarket

<5 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

59%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 60¢ buys you 167 shares | Odds: 59% Total Payout: $167 | Net Profit: $67 Multiplier: 1.67x | ROI: 67% High Projected APY: 1,586% Low liquidity 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<5

Trade
59%
11%
Yes 60¢No 52¢
12¢
$796
$105,037
0.02%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

5-6

Trade
37%
1%
Yes 39¢No 65¢
4¢
$653
$119,936
0.01%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

7-8

Trade
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 99.2¢
0.9¢
$1,861
$164,737
0.01%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

9-10

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 99.8¢
0.8¢
$1,044
$66,362
0.03%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

>16

Trade
0%
Yes 0.6¢No 99.9¢
0.5¢
$1,817
$15,265
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

11-12

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$2,093
$11,357
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

15-16

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,756
$32,053
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
polymarket

13-14

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$2,254
$11,072
0%
N/A
N/A
2mo 5d
active
Total markets: 8

Description

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.