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How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
polymarket

How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?

Dec 11, 2025, 7:45 PM EST - Dec 30, 2026, 7:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$504,683
Volume 24h:
$1,027
126%
Liquidity:
$11,694
17%
Open interest:
$13,627N/A

<5

 - Polymarket

<5 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?

56%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 60¢ buys you 167 shares | Odds: 56% Total Payout: $167 | Net Profit: $67 Multiplier: 1.67x | ROI: 67% | APY: 339% Low liquidity 125 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

<5

Trade
56%
Yes 60¢No 48¢
8¢
$487
$100,633
0%
1%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

5-6

Trade
44%
9%
Yes 44¢No 69¢
13¢
$540
$115,911
0.16%
2%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

7-8

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 3.9¢No 98.9¢
2.8¢
$3,186
$160,523
0.28%
1%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

11-12

Trade
2%
1%
Yes 2.2¢No 98.7¢
0.9¢
$1,378
$9,531
2%
14%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

>16

Trade
2%
Yes 2.5¢No 99.2¢
1.7¢
$1,251
$13,837
1%
11%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

9-10

Trade
0%
Yes 0.3¢No 99.8¢
0.1¢
$797
$62,577
0.01%
2%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

15-16

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.9¢
0.3¢
$2,160
$31,285
0%
4%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
polymarket

13-14

Trade
0%
Yes 0.2¢No 99.9¢
0.1¢
$1,895
$10,385
0%
13%
N/A
4mo 5d
active
Total markets: 8

Description

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.