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56,734
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Christopher Luxon
- Kalshi
Christopher Luxon - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Politics
Will Christopher Luxon leave Prime Minister of New Zealand before Jan 1, 2027?
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Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?
Description
This event group tracks whether Lee Jae-myung will cease to be the President of South Korea at any point in 2026. The market resolves to 'Yes' if he resigns, is removed, or is otherwise prevented from fulfilling presidential duties during that year.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)
Both platforms agree that any permanent cessation of Lee Jae-myung's presidency during 2026 results in a Yes resolution, with immediate effect for pre-2027 announcements.Primary resolution logic: Official announcements from the South Korean government and consensus from credible news sourcesCore resolution logic:
- Market resolves to Yes if Lee Jae-myung ceases to be President of South Korea at any point in 2026
- Resignation, removal, or permanent incapacitation all qualify for Yes resolution
- Announcements before December 31, 2026 trigger immediate resolution regardless of effective date
Edge cases & clarifications:
- Temporary Suspension: Temporary suspensions or leave of absence that does not permanently prevent fulfillment of presidential duties do not qualify for Yes resolution
- End-of-Term Succession: Regular end-of-term succession at the conclusion of Lee Jae-myung's term does not count as a resolution event for this market
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Lee Jae-myung ceases to be the President of South Korea for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Lee Jae-myung's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Lee Jae-myung and the government of South Korea; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Kalshi
Each outcome resolves to Yes if the specified leader either officially announces their intention to leave office or actually leaves office before January 1, 2027. An official announcement must come from the leader themselves, an authorized representative, or the governing body, and must be reported by at least one Source Agency. The announcement must not specify departure more than one year away. Leaving office includes resignation, termination, removal, impeachment and removal, recall, or term expiration without renewal. Temporary absences, medical leave, or delegation of duties do not constitute leaving office. Death does not satisfy the payout criterion. Forced departures satisfy the criterion even without prior announcement.
