TOTAL VOLUME:
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24H VOL:
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24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,063,853,505
56,734
Markets across
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events
MATCHED EVENTS:
96
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
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Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
March 31, 2027
- Polymarket
March 31, 2027 - Polymarket
1W
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Vol.
·
Resolves Apr 1, 2027
Latest in Politics
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027?
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Intro
This market tracks whether the next formal senior-level round of US-Iran peace talks will begin by August 31, 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—a diplomatic meeting by that date—stands at 54.5%, while a meeting occurring by July 31, 2026 is priced at 16.5%. Resolution will be determined by official government statements or consensus reporting from credible media sources. Watch for announcements of scheduled diplomatic rounds following the June 22 Switzerland talks, as any formally convened senior-level negotiating session involving authorized representatives from both governments would trigger a Yes resolution before the August 31, 2026 deadline.
Polymarket
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
