TOTAL VOLUME:
$26.9b
24H VOL:
$53,643,865
24H TRANSACTIONS:
1,362,287,844
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,063,853,505
56,734
Markets across
1,194
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
96
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
53%
VS.
Kalshi:
47%
Before Jan 1, 2028
- Kalshi
Before Jan 1, 2028 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Latest in Politics
Will the President be impeached before Jan 1, 2028?
$
Trump out as President by August 31?
Description
This event group tracks whether Donald Trump will cease to be the President of the United States by August 31, 2026. The markets differ in their specific resolution criteria and timelines for determining a 'Yes' outcome.
PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)
Divergence Detected
Issue: Divergence in resolution criteria and timing between platformsHero tip: Focus on actual removal from office for Polymarket. Kalshi contracts may resolve earlier based on impeachment alone. Monitor official announcements and congressional votes.Critical divergence points:
- Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if Trump is impeached before specific dates ranging from June 1, 2026 to January 1, 2028
- Polymarket: Resolves to Yes if Trump permanently ceases to be President by August 31, 2026, including resignation, removal, or sustained 25th Amendment invocation
Polymarket
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Kalshi
If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jun 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the President of the United States has been impeached before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the President of the United States has been impeached before Mar 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. If the President of the United States has been impeached before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
