TOTAL VOLUME:

$26.9b

24H VOL:

$53,643,865

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,362,287,844

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,063,853,505

56,734

Markets across

1,194

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

96

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

53%

VS.

Kalshi:

47%

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US-Iran nuclear deal?
kalshi

US-Iran nuclear deal?

Jan 8, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Jan 1, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$16,702,026
Volume 24h:
$33,445
15%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$5,464,344
0.26%

Before Jan 20, 2029

 - Kalshi

Before Jan 20, 2029 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year?

32%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 33¢ buys you 303 shares | Odds: 32% Total Payout: $303 | Net Profit: $203 Multiplier: 3.03x | ROI: 203% High Projected APY: 2,320% 127 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Jan 20, 2029

Trade
32%
1%
Yes 33¢No 68¢
1¢
N/A
$108,622
0.29%
1%
$28,386
4mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before 2028

Trade
19%
2%
Yes 25¢No 78¢
3¢
N/A
$90,194
0.21%
2%
$28,753
4mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before 2027

Trade
9%
2%
Yes 9¢No 93¢
2¢
N/A
$1,544,807
0.23%
0.74%
$473,313
4mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Mar 1, 2027

Trade
9%
Yes 10¢No 91¢
1¢
N/A
$42,848
0%
20%
$23,435
4mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Feb 1, 2027

Trade
8%
Yes 8¢No 93¢
1¢
N/A
$12,135
0%
4%
$7,999
4mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before November

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 96¢
3¢
N/A
$228,265
3%
8%
$110,004
4mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before December

Trade
5%
1%
Yes 8¢No 94¢
2¢
N/A
$142,224
0.7%
5%
$64,913
4mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before October

Trade
3%
Yes 3¢No 98¢
1¢
N/A
$492,364
3%
23%
$241,191
4mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before September

Trade
1%
Yes 1¢No 100¢
1¢
N/A
$2,184,881
0.37%
10%
$1,047,064
4mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before July

View
1%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,649,545
N/A
N/A
$1,091,239
4mo 1w
No
kalshi

Before June

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,392,806
N/A
N/A
$1,245,995
4mo 1w
No
kalshi

Before August

View
0%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,813,334
N/A
N/A
$1,102,051
4mo 1w
No
Total markets: 12

Intro

This market tracks whether the United States and Iran will reach a new nuclear agreement before the August 1, 2026 deadline. On Kalshi, the probability of a deal being agreed to, signed, or accepted stands at 64.0%, according to the resolution source specified by the platform. Watch for diplomatic announcements and negotiation developments leading up to the August 1, 2026 cutoff date, which marks the final window for a qualifying agreement to be reached.

Kalshi

A new Iran-US nuclear deal must be a formal written agreement signed by authorized representatives of both governments that (1) imposes verifiable restrictions on Iran's nuclear program, including limits on uranium enrichment, centrifuge numbers, or nuclear facility operations, and (2) provides for the lifting, suspension, or modification of at least one US economic sanction on Iran in exchange for Iran's nuclear commitments. Multilateral agreements are encompassed if the United States participates. A restriction is verifiable only where it establishes a concrete, objectively ascertainable standard against which compliance could be confirmed; general expressions of intent without defined limits do not qualify. The United States satisfying the payout criterion by having 'agreed to, signed, or accepted' such an instrument means that both governments publicly and officially agreeing to the terms is sufficient to resolve Yes, even if formal signing has not yet occurred. Each deadline (June 1, July 1, August 1, September 1, October 1, November 1, December 1, 2026, January 1, 2027, January 1, 2028, and January 20, 2029) is evaluated independently.