TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.6b

24H VOL:

$113,284,831

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,858,735,640

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,620,345,032

79,029

Markets across

1,359

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

138

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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When will any company achieve AGI?
kalshi

When will any company achieve AGI?

Mar 3, 2026, 10:00 AM EST - Jan 1, 2031, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$259,544
Volume 24h:
$71,825N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$119,999
19%

Before Jan 1, 2030

 - Kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2030 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2031

Will any company announce that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) before Jan 1, 2030?

81%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 82¢ buys you 122 shares | Odds: 81% Total Payout: $122 | Net Profit: $22 Multiplier: 1.22x | ROI: 22% | APY: 5% 1527 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2030

Trade
81%
Yes 82¢No 19¢
1¢
N/A
$4,590
0%
N/A
$2,481
4y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2031

Trade
78%
Yes 78¢No 23¢
1¢
N/A
$9,487
0%
N/A
$3,940
4y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2029

Trade
77%
Yes 77¢No 24¢
1¢
N/A
$4,089
0%
N/A
$2,395
4y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2028

Trade
74%
Yes 75¢No 26¢
1¢
N/A
$4,876
0%
N/A
$3,579
4y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2028

Trade
71%
2%
Yes 69¢No 35¢
4¢
N/A
$6,649
29%
N/A
$5,648
4y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2028

Trade
51%
Yes 54¢No 50¢
4¢
N/A
$14,395
6%
N/A
$10,358
4y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2028

Trade
38%
Yes 39¢No 62¢
1¢
N/A
$21,963
0.02%
N/A
$9,235
4y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2027

Trade
33%
1%
Yes 34¢No 70¢
4¢
N/A
$39,003
4%
N/A
$18,733
4y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Jul 1, 2027

Trade
29%
Yes 28¢No 73¢
1¢
N/A
$33,682
0%
N/A
$14,241
4y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Apr 1, 2027

Trade
15%
Yes 15¢No 86¢
1¢
N/A
$25,318
5%
N/A
$15,565
4y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Jan 1, 2027

Trade
7%
Yes 7¢No 94¢
1¢
N/A
$38,363
0%
N/A
$17,549
4y 2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Before Oct 1, 2026

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$57,130
N/A
N/A
$16,278
4y 2mo 1w
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This market tracks the potential for a corporate entity to declare that it has successfully developed Artificial General Intelligence, a form of AI that can understand, learn, and apply intelligence across diverse tasks comparable to human capabilities. The outcome hinges on an official announcement from any qualifying company, judged by specific criteria.

Kalshi

The market resolves to Yes if any publicly traded or verifiable private company officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after the market issuance and before any of the specified future dates, ranging from October 1, 2026 to January 1, 2031. The announcement must explicitly state that the company has achieved, attained, reached, or developed AGI, using the exact term "AGI" without qualification. Statements describing systems as "AGI-like," "AGI-level," "near-AGI," or "toward AGI" do not meet the requirement. The company must be covered by at least two major business news sources for verification purposes. Multiple end dates provide a staggered timeline for possible resolution, with each date offering a distinct timeframe for achievement.