TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Before 2030
- Kalshi
Before 2030 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2030
Latest in Science and Technology
Will OpenAI announce the creation of AGI?
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Description
These markets track whether OpenAI will publicly announce achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) within specified timeframes. AGI represents AI systems with human-level or superhuman capabilities across a broad range of cognitive tasks. Resolution depends on OpenAI's official announcement rather than independent verification.
Kalshi
OpenAI's achievement of AGI is measured by the company's own public announcement of attaining AGI. Each market corresponds to a different deadline: the first resolves Yes if OpenAI announces AGI achievement by December 31, 2026; the second by December 31, 2027; and the third by December 31, 2029. An announcement by any of these dates triggers a Yes resolution for all markets with that date or later. The resolution mechanism relies entirely on OpenAI's official statement rather than external assessment or third-party verification of AGI capabilities. Once OpenAI announces AGI achievement, all applicable markets with future deadlines would resolve affirmatively.
