TOTAL VOLUME:

$41.6b

24H VOL:

$113,284,831

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,858,735,640

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,620,345,032

79,029

Markets across

1,359

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

138

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

4

Polymarket:

45%

VS.

Kalshi:

55%

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When will the next US recession start?
kalshi

When will the next US recession start?

Mar 19, 2025, 10:00 AM EST - Dec 31, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$520,903
Volume 24h:
$1
100%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$178,738
0%

Q1 2026

 - Kalshi

Q1 2026 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Dec 31, 2026

When will the next U.S. recession start?

9%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 5.3¢ buys you 1,887 shares | Odds: 9% Total Payout: $1,887 | Net Profit: $1,787 Multiplier: 18.87x | ROI: 1,787% APY not meaningful 65 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Q1 2026

Trade
9%
Yes 5.3¢No 99.7¢
5¢
N/A
$86,150
0%
N/A
$33,998
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Q4 2025

Trade
1%
Yes 4.5¢No 99.7¢
4.2¢
N/A
$97,438
0%
N/A
$30,921
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Q4 2024

Trade
0%
Yes 3.1¢No 99.8¢
2.9¢
N/A
$46,247
0%
N/A
$20,620
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Q2 2025

Trade
0%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
0.1¢
N/A
$131,380
0%
N/A
$32,924
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Q3 2025

Trade
0%
Yes 2.7¢No 99.9¢
2.6¢
N/A
$83,690
0%
N/A
$25,742
2mo 5d
active
kalshi

Q1 2025

Trade
0%
Yes 0.9¢No 100¢
0.9¢
N/A
$75,999
0%
N/A
$34,535
2mo 5d
active
Total markets: 6

Description

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) will officially declare when the next U.S. recession begins by identifying the peak of business activity that preceded it. The timing of this declaration determines which quarter the recession is dated to.

Kalshi

If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2024, then the market resolves to Yes. If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q2 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q3 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q4 2025, then the market resolves to Yes. If the NBER declares the peak of American business activity predating a recession to be in Q1 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.