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Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?
kalshi

Which companies will have a top-ranked AI model this year?

Jan 1, 2026, 12:01 AM EST - Jan 2, 2027, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$440,005
Volume 24h:
$2,394
98%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$161,958
0.66%

OpenAI

 - Kalshi

OpenAI - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 2, 2027

Will OpenAI have a top-ranked AI model before 2027?

13%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 16¢ buys you 625 shares | Odds: 13% Total Payout: $625 | Net Profit: $525 Multiplier: 6.25x | ROI: 525% APY not meaningful 67 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

OpenAI

Trade
13%
4%
Yes 16¢No 87¢
3¢
N/A
$163,859
0.48%
N/A
$49,795
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Meta

Trade
12%
1%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
N/A
$48,553
0.01%
N/A
$20,645
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Alibaba

Trade
6%
Yes 5¢No 98¢
3¢
N/A
$19,356
0%
N/A
$7,244
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

xAI

Trade
6%
Yes 8¢No 94¢
2¢
N/A
$107,574
1%
N/A
$38,141
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Baidu

Trade
5%
Yes 5¢No 99¢
4¢
N/A
$12,645
0%
N/A
$5,137
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Moonshot AI

Trade
5%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$6,166
0%
N/A
$3,158
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Nvidia

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$35,711
0.23%
N/A
$17,078
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Deepseek

Trade
4%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$24,480
0%
N/A
$11,555
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Z.ai

Trade
4%
Yes 6¢No 97¢
3¢
N/A
$8,238
0%
N/A
$2,680
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

Mistral

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 98¢
2¢
N/A
$4,660
0%
N/A
$2,589
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

01A1

Trade
3%
Yes 4¢No 99¢
3¢
N/A
$1,301
0%
N/A
$815
2mo 1w
active
kalshi

ByteDance

Trade
3%
5%
Yes 5¢No 97¢
2¢
N/A
$7,465
0.04%
N/A
$3,121
2mo 1w
active
Total markets: 12

Description

This market tracks which major AI companies will achieve top-ranked model status during 2026. A company resolves to Yes if it develops or releases an AI model that ranks first according to established benchmarks before the year ends.

Kalshi

A company achieves a Yes resolution if it has a #1 ranked AI model before January 1, 2027. The event encompasses thirteen companies spanning both established tech giants and specialized AI firms, including Meta, Nvidia, xAI, Mistral, Deepseek, Alibaba, 01.AI, Zhipu AI, OpenAI, Baidu, Z.ai, Moonshot AI, and ByteDance. Resolution depends on achieving top ranking status by the specified deadline, with each company evaluated independently.