TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.6b
24H VOL:
$113,284,831
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,858,735,640
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,620,345,032
79,029
Markets across
1,359
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
138
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Yes
- Kalshi
Yes - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
Hover marker for details
Vol.
·
Resolves Jul 1, 2028
Latest in Economics
Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?
$
Intro
This market on Kalshi tracks whether a severe economic downturn—defined by at least three concurrent indicators including unemployment exceeding 10%, an S&P 500 decline of more than 30%, significant home value drops in major metros, labor share of GDI falling below 50%, or CPI-U turning negative—will occur before July 2028. The leading outcome currently stands at 23.0% on Kalshi. Resolution depends on whether at least three of these conditions appear in any official release published between now and the July 2028 deadline, according to BLS, market indices, Zillow data, and other government economic releases.
Kalshi
If at least 3 of: unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS) S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50% CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release occur in any release published after Issuance and before July 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
