TOTAL VOLUME:
$41.1b
24H VOL:
$94,100,224
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,819,523,799
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,635,541,893
67,901
Markets across
1,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
139
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
4
Polymarket:
45%
VS.
Kalshi:
55%
Before Jan 20, 2029
- Kalshi
Before Jan 20, 2029 - Kalshi
1W
News
Positive
Negative
Neutral
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Vol.
·
Resolves Jan 1, 2027
Latest in Science and Technology
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist in 2029?
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Intro
This market tracks whether a high-ranking U.S. official will make a definitive public statement confirming the existence of extraterrestrial life or technology. On Kalshi, the probability that such confirmation occurs by 2029 stands at 24.0%, while the likelihood of confirmation by 2028 is 17.0%. Resolution hinges on an official statement from the President, a Cabinet member, a Joint Chiefs of Staff member, or a federal agency, as defined by Kalshi's resolution criteria. Watch for any formal government announcements or congressional disclosures before August 1, 2026, the cutoff date for market resolution.
Kalshi
These markets track whether senior U.S. government officials or agencies definitively state that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by various deadlines ranging from July 1, 2026, through January 20, 2029. The statement must come from the President, a Cabinet member (including heads of the 15 Cabinet departments plus the EPA Administrator, White House Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, OMB Director, CIA Director, U.S. Trade Representative, UN Ambassador, Council of Economic Advisers Chair, SBA Administrator, or OSTP Director), a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or a U.S. federal agency. Each market corresponds to a specific deadline, with earlier dates requiring confirmation sooner and later dates allowing more time for such a disclosure.
